By Dr Narendra Saini
USA cases 32,070,784
India cases 13,871,321
Brazil cases 13,601,566
Second wave of COVID-19, When will it end ?
India added more than 1 lakh infections on an average over the last one week compares with the seven-day rolling average of around 65,000 and 63,000 cases added by the U.S. and Brazil,respectively.
Scientist Using a mathematical model, have predicted that the vicious second wave would peak by mid-April and may see a decline by May end.It is a sharp slope, but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by the end of May may see a dramatic reduction said senior scientist Manindra Agrawal.
The prediction is based on three main parameters,The first is called Beta, or contact rate, which measures how many people an infected person infects per day. It is related to the R-naught value, which is the number of people an infected person spreads the virus to over the course of their infection.The second parameter is ‘Reach’, measure of exposure level of the population to Covid-19, and the third is ‘Epsilon’, ratio of detected and undetected coronavirus cases. As per Indian Council of Medical Research’s (ICMR) there are around 26-32 undetected Covid-19 cases for every lab confirmed case.
However, like with the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, it would depend on adherence to safety protocols -proper practices of masking, disinfecting,testing, tracing, quarantine and mass vaccination with availability to those who want it
Remember virus travels with the people and celebrates with the crowds.
We are going to win this covid pandemic all Together by doing our part effectively
The writer is Dr Narendra Saini,Chairman Scientific committee DMC,Chairman AMR committee IMA Hq,Past Sec Gen IMA
Director SAINI DIAGNOSTICS ICMR approved lab for RTPCR testing