Predictions of the disease’s future prevalence are a crucial component of health policy-makers budget preparation and of significant interest to persons with a family history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Researchers from Japan have now forecast a decline in CVD incidence through 2040 using new statistical modelling techniques. Governments need projections of disease rates to determine how much money will be needed for healthcare in the future and for what health priorities. However, due to the wide range of variables that affect disease rates, it might be difficult to make precise projections.
According to a research that will be published in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, between 2020 and 2040, there may be a decrease in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in Japan. “Key elements that must be considered include population ageing and population growth or reduction,” says Eri Kiyoshige, the study’s principal author. “When it comes to cardiovascular problems, additional variables such as rising diabetes, cholesterol levels, and body mass index lately observed in Japan play a vital influence.” Previous research that attempted to predict future CHD and stroke in Japan did not take into account the country’s 47 prefectures.
As a consequence, in addition to more typical statistical modelling, the researchers employed a Bayesian age-period-cohort model that takes into consideration Japanese population estimates as well as the number of CHD and stroke fatalities in Japan from 1995 to 2019. (for all men and women over 30 years of age). These were used to population forecasts for the years 2020 to 2040 in order to anticipate changes in CHD and stroke mortality more precisely than traditional modelling could.
“This model predicted that the number of national-level cardiovascular deaths in Japan will decrease from 2020 to 2040,” says Chris Kypridemos, one of the authors of the study. “Rates are also predicted to decline in most prefectures over this same time period, although some regional differences are predicted in 2040.”
The findings indicate that considerable decreases in death rates in the Japanese population can be expected to compensate for the negative consequences of an ageing population. Furthermore, changes in population size will have only a minor impact at the national and regional levels.
However, as CVD deaths decline and life expectancy rises, there is likely to be an increase in healthcare spending for dementia and frailty, as well as a possibly higher burden of residential care, all of which must be considered when estimating overall future healthcare expenses. These findings are likely to help health policymakers make more accurate funding choices, thereby improving health care at the national and regional levels in Japan.
